SEB’s Boprisindikator rises again in July. The rise is 6 units from the previous month and the indicator is now 13. Among the regions exhibiting the Stockholm is still a negative number, minus 6. The rest of the regions is in a range between plus 8 and 22. Households ‘ expectations of the repo rate’s level on a year drops down to 0.12 per cent compared to 0.27 per cent last month. The proportion who plan to bind their variable-rate loans falling a percentage point to 5 per cent compared with the previous month.
Of the surveyed households answer 42 per cent that they believe in rising prices over the next year. This is an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous month’s listing. The proportion who believe in falling prices, fell by 4 percentage points, from 33 to 29 per cent. The proportion who believe in the unchanged rate is 22 per cent, an increase of 2 percentage points. We define SEB’s Boprisindikator as the difference between the proportion who believe in rising prices and the percentage that believe in falling prices. The indicator is set in this measurement on the 13, which is 6 units higher than last month.
After last month’s setback turns Boprisindikatorn re-up. The larger trend is that households are on track to regain confidence in the housing market is thus in and of itself. This month’s listing of 13 is the highest since October 2017, before the clear decline in both prices and expectations began. But despite this month’s rise is far from the previous peak levels, and the impression is still that the market is in the balance, » says SEB’s privatekonom Jens Magnusson.
Households believe that the repo rate will be 0.12 per cent a year
On the question what households think about the level of the Riksbank’s repo rate on a year they say on average that the repo rate will be on 0,12 against last month’s figure of 0.27 per cent. This is the lowest level since August of 2017 when it was 0.06%.
Five per cent of households were planning to tie the interest rate
Of the households who fully or partially has a variable interest rate on their loan corresponds to 5 per cent that they have no intention of tying the interest rate in the upcoming three-month period. It is one percentage point lower than last month. Moreover, the proportion who say that they have a combination of fixed and variable interest rate increased from 19% to 23%, while the share of variable interest rate declined from 29 to 25 per cent.
Boprisindikatorn on the plus in all regions except in Stockholm
In Stockholm, steps Boprisindikatorn from minus 7 to minus 6, as measured by the two-month average. Thus, exhibiting the Stockholm is still a negative value while the other regions have positive values between 8 and 22. The greatest rise was noted in the Västra Götaland region, where the indicator rose from 14 to 17. In the Country outside Stockholm, and in Eastern Götaland step indicator with 2 units each of 8 and 12, respectively, and in Skåne by 1 unit to 22. In the north, is the indicator still on the 11.
It is a fuzzy picture that we see with relatively large regional differences. It is noteworthy that in Stockholm are still more who believe in falling than in rising prices and a clear signal that the uncertainty in the housing market is still large, » says SEB’s privatekonom Jens Magnusson.
Demoskop carry out monthly since march 2003 on behalf of the SEB survey Boprisindikatorn. This study is based on the 1 023 interviews and was conducted during the period 25 June to 3 July.
Boprisindikatorn — Development last 12 months:
For more information please contact
Jens Magnusson, Privatekonom
070-210 22 67
Frank Hojem, Head Of Media Relations
08-763 99 47
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The Graphs Boprisindikatorn July 2018
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Source: SEB via Globenewswire